Can vaccination catch up with Omicron infection speed? Experts: Different countries have different policies and the epidemic may last for decades
Vaccination can’t keep up with Omicron speed? There may still be uncertainty about the epidemic
The powerful contagiousness of Omicron virus has never been seen before, and the world has once again plunged into a new wave of pandemic within 7 weeks of its emergence. Regions with the largest number of people infected with Omicron, such as the United Kingdom, had a daily confirmed population of more than 160,000 in January. Although the WHO and relevant health agencies have claimed that the emergence of Omicron virus may herald the end of the global pandemic, the authoritative scientific journal “Nature” pointed out that there is still huge uncertainty about the global epidemic.
Graham Medley, an infectious disease model expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said in “Nature” that even if everyone on the planet is vaccinated, it will take about 2 weeks to become effective. During this period, the previous spread of Omicron virus was enough to increase the number of infections by nearly 3-4 times.
Dr. Mark Woolhouse, a public health expert at the University of Edinburgh in the United Kingdom, pointed out that governments of various countries have different standards for the “immunity baseline” of the country’s population, making the spread of Omicron virus difficult to predict. When governments formulate asynchronous public health policies, infection rates, vaccination rates, and recovery rates fluctuate differently. Unless policy directions are reset, ending the pandemic may “be reduced to empty talk.”
Is the vaccine gradually failing at Omicron? No vaccine can provide long-term protection
The weakening of the vaccine’s effect on Omicron viruses will also make the global epidemic more complicated. “Nature” pointed out that the “live-attenuated virus” vaccine widely used in China and Southeast Asia “almost never” produces neutralizing antibodies against Omicron virus. Does this mean that Omicron will be rampant in the above areas?
Dr. Woolhouse believes that the “spike protein” in the virus has the highest mutation rate, making the live-attenuated vaccine ineffective in inhibiting the spike protein. However, it can produce a broad immune response against “viral proteins”, so it is premature to conclude that live attenuated vaccines are completely ineffective against Omicron.
For example, Woolhouse said that among countries where live-attenuated vaccines are widely administered, the Philippines has made the most progress. The capital Manila has the highest vaccine penetration rate in the country, and the number of new confirmed cases appears to be on a downward trend. However, the vaccine penetration rate in the Philippines is only 53%, which means that Omicron cases are still increasing in areas outside the capital area.
Christina Pagel, a data analyst at University College London, believes that both live-attenuated vaccines and mRNA vaccines may be helpful in preventing Omicron infections, but large-scale epidemics will not stop. “No vaccine can bring lasting protection.” Pagel said that at this stage, the vaccine cannot directly eliminate Omicron and the epidemic.
Isn’t Omicron the ultimate virus? Scholar: It may take decades for the epidemic to truly end
What is the best weapon to fight the new coronavirus? Medley believes that if the vaccine has limited effect on inhibiting Omicron, Omicron may not be the “last” mutant strain of the new coronavirus. There will still be stronger mutant strains taking their place in the future. The new coronavirus is unlikely to disappear completely, but will gradually evolve in the direction of “regionalization.”
When the new coronavirus evolves into a regional epidemic, it means that humans will coexist with the virus for a long time. Model expert Medley believes that even the most advanced virus models are difficult to predict the direction of the epidemic in the next few weeks. Therefore, as the world steadily improves immunity and prepares to coexist with the new coronavirus, it indicates that society will endure a certain number of deaths.
Woolhouse added that only when most people are exposed to the virus in childhood and develop natural immunity can they be truly protected from the threat of severe disease. This means that it may take decades for the new coronavirus to weaken into a low-threat regional infectious disease.
At the same time, the current generation of middle-aged and elderly people will still suffer from a certain degree of severe illness and mortality when facing COVID-19. Therefore, continuing to vaccinate will be the main means of epidemic prevention today.
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