Is Omicron's severe case of death less severe? Medical warning: The number of excess deaths is three times that of Delta!
The number of excess deaths worldwide is nearly 15 million, and the elderly population is more male
The local epidemic in Omicron continues to heat up, with the number of new confirmed cases every day approaching the 100,000 mark. Although various studies have shown that the severe illness rate and mortality rate have decreased after Omicron infection, the large number of confirmed cases caused by its extremely contagious nature may still affect the amount of medical treatment and cause “excess deaths”.
According to the World Health Organization, between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021, the excess mortality related to all COVID-19 infections amounted to approximately 14.9 million people. The calculation of this number includes those directly caused by COVID-19. The number of deaths caused by disease or indirect impacts on the public health system and society. Among the excess mortality, more men and older people died.
Omicron excess deaths exceed Delta three times
Dr. Jiang Guanyu, an attending physician at the Department of General Internal Medicine at the Taipei City Hospital Zhongxing Branch, pointed out that excess deaths refer to the actual number of deaths being greater than the estimated number of deaths within a specific period of time. The latest paper published in “JAMA” pointed out that Massachusetts, with a population of about 6.9 million people in the United States (Editor’s note: According to information announced by the Massachusetts government, more than 3 million people in the state have received additional doses of vaccine, and the number of people who have received two doses of vaccine has exceeded 5.3 million), causing excess deaths during the spread of Omicron three times that of Delta.
The study measured the number of all-cause deaths in Massachusetts from January 5, 2015 to February 8, 2020, and estimated the expected mortality and number of deaths for 52 weeks in each year. Then compare the weekly population and weekly expected deaths stratified by age during the epidemic period (February 9, 2020 to February 20, 2022).
The results showed that a total of 1,975 excess deaths from all causes occurred during the 23-week Delta period, while Omicron experienced 2,294 excess deaths during the 8-week period alone. The weekly excess death rate caused by Omicron is 3.34 times that of Delta. More notably, statistically significant excess mortality occurred across all adult age groups during the study period.
The O virus offensive is fierce and highly contagious, and may still lead to large numbers of deaths
Dr. Jiang Guanyu pointed out that from this study, it can be found that compared with the Delta period, the ratio of observed excess mortality to expected excess mortality increased during the Omicron period. And even among highly vaccinated and increasingly immune populations, high levels of contagion can quickly lead to massive deaths.
Dr. Jiang Guanyu explained that this study shows that the all-cause excess mortality rate in the first 8 weeks of the Omicron period has exceeded the death figure in the 23 weeks of the Delta period. Among them, the number of excess deaths is higher in the elderly group, while deaths are too high in all adult age groups. This reflects the increase in all-cause excess mortality under the Omicron wave, which may lead to a higher overall number of deaths.
There is still a long way to go before the epidemic spreads. Protecting the elders in the community is the first priority.
“This actually implies that this disease is still some distance away from influenza!” Dr. Jiang Guanyu said that the analysis of the results of the study was not to create public panic, but because the high contagiousness of Omicron has caused a large burden on society, economy, and administration. Including screening capacity, issuance of isolation orders, people’s livelihood and other aspects, it is imperative that the treatment becomes more like influenza in the future.
Dr. Jiang Guanyu reminded that during the peak period of the epidemic, people still need to strengthen their own protection, and they should not take it lightly after being fully vaccinated. It is expected that there will be a strong period of labor pains in the future, and it is still necessary to protect the elders in the community and reduce further deaths as much as possible.
Source:
14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021
Excess Mortality in Massachusetts During the Delta and Omicron Waves of COVID-19
Further reading:
Is it safer to let children become infected naturally? Doctor: Wrong concept! Vaccination is the key
