I'm afraid it's not a gift from God! Omicron severe underestimation of severe illness and mortality study says hospitalization rate is 75% higher than Delta
Omicron reduces severe illness and mortality? NEJM: Nothing to do with the virus itself
The powerful spread of Omicron virus is called “unprecedented”, but the risk of severe illness and death seems to be lower than that of Alpha, Delta and other viruses. However, the latest report published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) reverses the view that Omicron is highly transmissible but weakly toxic.
A joint study by Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital in the United States pointed out that compared with the Delta variant, the spread of Omicron virus in South Africa has indeed slowed down, and the number of severe cases and deaths has been smaller than in previous epidemics. . However, this is not because the infectivity of Omicron is weaker than that of Delta.
On the contrary, the previous large-scale Delta virus infection resulted in the South African population generally having a certain immunity, which was able to resist the large-scale invasion of Omicron virus.
Omicron susceptible to infection by those with better immunity? Study: Hospitalization rates 75% higher than Delta
Research has found that people with better immunity (such as young adults) and people with weaker immunity (such as the elderly) have different outcomes when faced with different types of mutant viruses. Viruses with poor immune escape capabilities, such as Delta, are prone to infecting people with weak innate immune systems or those with innate immunity deficiency, and have a relatively high fatality rate. The Omicron virus, known for its powerful immune evasion ability, is more likely to infect people with stronger immune systems. This may be one of the main reasons why the mortality rate of Omicron virus is lower than that of Delta.
Although South Africa’s virus fatality rate data has declined, this epidemic trend does not apply to other countries. One of the reasons is the country’s relatively young population structure, which is different from developed countries in Europe, America and Asia. Since the Omicron virus tends to attack those with stronger immune systems, young people with complete immunity generally have a reduced risk of severe illness and mortality. In addition, in response to the Delta virus epidemic, South Africa adopted a policy of prioritizing vaccination for the elderly population, which may have relatively reduced the transmissibility and death toll of the Omicron virus.
This means that the impact of Omicron virus has been seriously underestimated. Although the mortality rate from severe infection with Omicron is much lower than that of Delta, this finding may be related to the generally young population and public health policies in South Africa. The study re-adjusted the variables to simulate whether Omicron would cause more serious casualties if the Delta virus did not cause a pandemic.
The results showed that Omicron caused a 75% higher hospitalization rate among unvaccinated people than Delta virus. It is shown that Omicron, Delta, Alpha and the original virus strain are all destructive to the human body to a certain extent. Even though the study was conducted in areas with widely varying case diagnosis rates, the corrected data consistently showed that the Omicron virus itself is not less contagious than other mutant viruses, and its damage to the immune system cannot be underestimated.
Omicron says the new coronavirus is weakening? Research warns: Stronger mutant strains may evolve
In the conclusion of the study, the Harvard team claimed that the severity of Omicron varied significantly between immune differences in different groups. For unvaccinated and immunocompromised people, Omicron may be even more destructive than Delta, Alpha and other mutant strains. What’s even more troublesome is that Omicron’s immune evasion ability makes it easy to infect more people who have never been exposed to the new coronavirus, contributing to its rapid spread.
Research infers that the new coronavirus will not immediately evolve in the direction of “reducing its toxicity”. Instead, it may develop stronger and faster-spreading variants that can compete with the body’s immune cells. Harvard University believes that to thoroughly analyze the characteristics of Omicron mutant strains, it is necessary to further compare it with other virus strains, and to grasp the age, immunity, detection error value, medical capacity and other values of the population in different regions, in order to truly quantify the destructive ability of Omicron.
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