The epidemic prevention strategy has changed! Doctor: Rise in natural infections helps maintain herd immunity and antibodies
The epidemic cannot be cleared? Half of Taiwan’s population still lacks adequate protection
The number of local cases of the new coronavirus has exceeded 380 for three consecutive days. Is the epidemic about to break out on a large scale? Dr. Huang Gaobin, deputy director of the Infection Control Center of the Hospital Affiliated to China Medical University and commander of the Central District of the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Network, said in an interview that the current epidemic situation is different from last year. Last year, the Delta strain had high rates of severe illness and death. Nowadays, about 99.79% of Omicron infections are mild and asymptomatic, and epidemic prevention strategies must also change accordingly.
“Last year when we faced the Delta virus, we adopted a zero-to-zero approach and brought it under control within 2 months. This was correct. The main purpose was to avoid an explosion in the number of severe cases and deaths. Now the virus is evolving in a weakening direction, and the current proportion of moderate to severe cases is not high. To 0.2%, the concept of epidemic control must be changed!”
Dr. Huang Gaobin pointed out that the current number of confirmed cases in Taiwan is about 25,000, and the proportion of the population that has received the third dose of the vaccine is about 51%, which means that half of the population still does not have sufficient protection. As soon as the virus comes in, 1 in 2 people will be highly infected. risk. We must consider how to gradually move toward normal life while maintaining sufficient medical capacity while the number of infections is gradually rising.
“As the epidemic has developed so far, insisting on a complete clean-up will probably only harm but not benefit Taiwan. After all, human beings need economic and cultural exchange activities. If there is no way to go out and foreigners cannot be allowed to come in, Taiwan may become “the world’s “Orphans”, this is what everyone needs to think about! "
When will herd immunity be achieved? Natural infection plus vaccine coverage is best at 90%
Dr. Huang Gaobin said that to achieve herd immunity against the virus, natural infection plus vaccine coverage must reach more than 80% to 90%. However, the number of infections in Taiwan is relatively small, and the protective power of the vaccine will decrease over time. The protective power of the three-dose vaccine for 51% of Taiwan’s population is expected to begin to decrease after 3 or 4 months. In the long run, the increase in the number of natural infections will positively contribute to herd immunity.
Dr. Huang Gaobin pointed out that from the Brazilian research report, it can be found that if the infected person has a natural infection and is vaccinated, the antibody effect can last for 20 months. Whether you are infected first and then vaccinated, or you are vaccinated and then infected naturally, it will help maintain the duration of antibodies in the body and the immune response of T cells.
As for the effect of the fourth dose of the vaccine, the latest results of Israel’s administration have been published in the New England Journal of Medicine, showing that the protection of the fourth dose of the vaccine only lasts about four weeks. It can be seen that the protective power of the vaccine obviously decreases with time. This is why natural infections have gained relative importance.
“The best way is to gradually increase the number of natural infections, and at the same time have sufficient vaccine coverage, which can reduce the sudden large-scale diagnosis, such as what happened in Hong Kong and South Korea. Then gradually relax the restrictions and wait for the mild cases As the proportion of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections increases, the duration of antibody protection will actually be lengthened!”
The four major directions of the development of the epidemic: the increase in the number of infected people is an inevitable process
Dr. Huang Gaobin concluded that in the face of this year’s epidemic, Taiwan should prepare in four major directions. First of all, a larger number of infections will help with collective immunity. Mild infections are similar to influenza, so people need to change their mindset.
Second, the characteristic of the new coronavirus is that once a large number of cases break out, severe illness and death will inevitably occur. Therefore, trying to maintain a gradual increase in the number of confirmed cases while appropriately relaxing controls and quarantines can allow more people to obtain the antibody protection of natural infection.
Third, it is urgent to purchase sufficient oral antiviral drugs. The biggest role of drugs is that early use can reduce the amount of virus in the infected person’s body and reduce the risk of transmission. In addition to oral drugs from Pfizer and Merck, antiviral drugs from Japan’s Shionogi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. have obtained EUA and can be considered for purchase.
Fourth, the public should be reminded that they should be mentally prepared. The increase in the number of infections is a necessary process and there is no need to panic about the epidemic. Taiwanese people have long enjoyed health insurance care and should understand the preciousness of medical resources. If the infection is only mild, hospitalization may not be necessary. Try to make sure that hospital beds and medical manpower can be used to care for critically ill patients, and jointly protect Taiwan’s medical capacity.
Further reading:
Is the “4th dose” effective against Omicron? Israeli study says benefits may be ‘minimal’
