When will the epidemic plateau reach? The black numbers are all in "Beibeijitao"? Famous doctors: A sharp decline is expected in July
The epidemic has entered a plateau, a famous doctor said: the number of confirmed cases will peak
The command center announced that there were 80,000 to 90,000 or 90,000 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the past few days, and the local cumulative number has exceeded 1.62 million. Does this indicate that the Omicron epidemic has entered a “plateau period”?
Dr. Huang Gaobin, deputy director of the Infection Control Center of the Hospital Affiliated to China Medical University and commander of the Central District of the Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Network of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, said in an interview that the number of confirmed cases in the two provinces has not dropped significantly, but it has not increased significantly. Although Taichung The number of people has increased slightly, and the overall epidemic situation in Taiwan has remained at a stable level. It can indeed be said that it has entered a “plateau state.”
Dr. Huang Gaobin said that in the past one or two weeks, the highest number of confirmed cases in a single day was more than 90,000. Only Monday dropped to more than 60,000 due to the reduction in the number of examinations due to holidays. It is not easy to estimate that the peak number will exceed 90,000, and it is likely to remain at 8,000. Between 90,000. It is not expected that the number of confirmed cases in a single day will exceed 200,000 or even 500,000 as previously speculated by the outside world.
Will the epidemic situation decline in early June? Is it expected that cases will decrease in July?
“The maximum number of confirmed cases in a single day is between 80,000 and 100,000. This is a reasonable estimate. If the current situation continues, the number will drop by early June at the earliest. However, we cannot rule out that there will still be a tail end of the epidemic. If it is reasonable, It will last until late June!”
The outside world is worried that the epidemic has not reached its peak, and it will be delayed until September before there is a chance to resume normal life. Dr. Huang Gaobin believes that the population density of Taiwan’s cities is far higher than that of countries such as New Zealand, and the number of infections continues to occur. A large number of confirmed cases will be around the end of June at the latest, and the number of cases is expected to decrease significantly after July. The progress of the epidemic can be expected to enter the next stage.
The majority of black people in the community are in Beibeijitao? Why didn’t there be an outbreak in central and southern Taiwan?
However, the number of confirmed cases has not been an “exponential outbreak” as some experts speculated. Does it mean that there are a large number of black cases hidden in the community? Dr. Huang Gaobin pointed out that most of the “black numbers” who are asymptomatically infected but will not get sick again will be in North Kitao, a crowded and crowded area with the highest number of infections. On the contrary, Kaohsiung and Taichung have fewer black cases, so the number of confirmed cases has shown signs of rising in recent days.
Are people worried that the “southern migration of the epidemic” will lead to a major outbreak in central and southern Taiwan? Dr. Huang Gaobin believes that the probability is very low. Firstly, the population density in the central and southern parts of the country is lower than that in the northern and northern parts. Secondly, Taipei is an area with the most developed public transportation. The ratio of the number of passengers and asymptomatic infections will naturally be greater, and these asymptomatic young people There may not be extensive screening, and they become black numbers lurking in the community. The density of public transportation in Taichung and Kaohsiung is relatively low, and the risk of infection is relatively reduced.
Finally, the whole of Taiwan has become a “one-day living circle.” Dr. Huang Gaobin pointed out that many northern drifters will still go back to central and southern Taiwan to spend time with their relatives during holidays. Every week off is equivalent to the virus “circling Taiwan”. If the central and southern parts of the country are affected by the epidemic, It will surge in large quantities, and may have already exploded before then.
Is it possible to achieve herd immunity if the number of infected people increases by another 4%?
Dr. Huang Gaobin said that the number of confirmed cases currently accounts for about 6.5% of the total population, and the coverage rate of the third dose of the vaccine is about 64%, totaling about 70%. When the protective population exceeds 80%, there is a chance to achieve the effect of herd immunity. .
If the number of potential black cases in the community is approximately double the number of confirmed cases, Taiwan actually has 76% protection. It is estimated that the number of future infections will increase by 4% and the population will be about 920,000, which will reach 80% protection.
“Now there are about 70,000 to 80,000 confirmed cases every day, which means it will take about 11-12 days, and this number will be reached in early June. Judging from Taiwan’s epidemic prevention situation and local customs, I thought it would rise to 200,000 or 50,000 a day. It’s quite unlikely that the number of confirmed cases will drop rapidly after that!”
Dr. Huang Gaobin said that the epidemic is still at its peak, and people should complete vaccination as soon as possible, implement personal protection measures such as hand hygiene, cough etiquette, and wearing masks, reduce unnecessary movements, activities, or gatherings, and avoid entering and leaving crowded places. or areas with high risk of infection transmission.
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