China cancels entry quarantine on 1/8! Could "mini three links" lead to an outbreak? Doctors urge "four major preparations"
China cancels entry quarantine on 1/8! Is Taiwan likely to be affected?
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced this morning (27th) that starting from January 8 next year, COVID-19 will no longer be included in the management of infectious diseases, and nucleic acid testing for entry personnel will also be cancelled. It emphasized that it will “resume the orderly resumption of Chinese citizens leaving the country.” The outside world believes that this is a “comprehensive relaxation” of China’s official control measures. China’s official opening-up measures have led to large-scale diagnoses among Chinese people. Will Taiwan on the other side be affected by this?
Dr. Jiang Guanyu, an attending physician at the Department of Integrated Medicine, Taipei City Hospital Zhongxing Branch, posted an analysis on social media. Various studies have shown that “millions” of people will die after China lifts the lockdown. As for Taiwan, it is estimated that the impact will not be significant. However, risk groups still need to be aware of epidemic prevention.
“Millions of people may die” in China within months! Doctor: Only “1 measure” can be used to remedy the situation
Dr. Jiang Guanyu said that epidemiologists from various countries are not optimistic about the epidemic in China. First, Australian infectious disease expert James Wood pointed out in an interview with “Nature” that China will experience the worst months in the future, and it is estimated that more than 100 people will die. Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist at the University of Washington in Seattle, said frankly that from the end of March next year, the number of deaths in China may rise to 9,000 people per day. In April, there were an estimated 500,000 deaths, and by the end of 2023, there may be 160 Thousands of people died.
Chinese official data shows that since late November, the number of reported cases in various regions has shown a downward trend as epidemic prevention and testing requirements have become relatively loose, but there are signs that infection cases have begun to rise rapidly in some areas. According to the preprint analysis of “medRxiv” on December 16, Beijing’s infected population may have reached its peak; another preprint released on December 14 used the original model analysis of Hong Kong and Shanghai. Due to the tight medical capacity, It is estimated that more than 1 million people will die.
Dr. Jiang Guanyu pointed out that the above is only an analysis of direct deaths caused by pure “viral infection”, and does not comprehensively consider other additional deaths caused by interruption and delay in treatment. In addition, the epidemic has already broken out in China, and the authorities may only be able to “make up for it” by adding a fourth dose. If antiviral drugs are provided to the elderly and those with chronic diseases, it is expected to reduce the number of deaths by about 35%.
Administering the “bivalent vaccine” still has protective advantages! The incidence of reinfection within 100 days is “almost 0”
Dr. Jiang Guanyu said that a newly released preprint on December 19 was tracked by the well-known American medical institution “Cleveland Clinic” on 51,011 employees. 20,689 people (41%) had a record of being diagnosed, 42,064 (83 %) had received at least 2 doses of vaccine previously. A total of 10,804 employees received the bivalent vaccine, 9,595 received Pfizer BNT, and 1,178 received Moderna. During this period, 2,452 people (5%) were infected.
According to the study, the risk of reinfection among the overall subjects has a trend with the passage of time from the previous infection, which means that the longer the interval between the last infection, the higher the risk of reinfection. Compared with the last diagnosis within 3 months, the risk of reinfection for subjects whose last diagnosis was 6-9 months ago was 2 times; and for subjects whose last diagnosis was 9-12 months ago, the risk of reinfection increased to 3.5 times. .
The administration of the bivalent vaccine provided a certain degree of protection, with an overall efficacy of about 30%; for previously infected and vaccinated individuals, the protective effect of both bivalent vaccines was 21%. During the study period, BA4 and BA5 were the main epidemic periods. As long as the group with the previously infected strain is closer to BA4/5, the obvious protection benefit will be higher. For those previously infected with BA4/5, the cumulative incidence of reinfection within 100 days is almost 0. If BA1/2 will increase further, the earlier strains will be even higher.
Will the opening of “mini three links” lead to an epidemic outbreak? Doctors call on authorities and the public to make “4 preparations”
Will the epidemic in China affect Taiwan? Dr. Jiang Guanyu explained that it still depends on the type of virus strain. The response of the virus to the new bivalent vaccine BA4/5, from BA4/5 and BF7 to BQ1 and XBB viruses, can be said to be “gradually decreasing” in effectiveness; especially since BF7 and BA4/5 are closely related, immunity to the bivalent vaccine Escape is also similar, with XBB appearing furthest away.
In general, Dr. Jiang Guanyu pointed out that the current epidemics in Taiwan are mainly BA2 and BA5; while the epidemic in China is BA4/5 and BF7, not BQ1 or XBB. The impact should not be too great, but we should be careful. Immune to the “XBB” virus with relatively strong escape ability. The currently hotly discussed “mini-three links” issue suggests a “phased opening”. When Taiwanese businessmen return home, they should conduct systematic inspections to first confirm the proportion and sequence of arrivals from China. “After all, no matter how low the proportion of severe cases is, if the denominator increases dramatically, the numerator will still be significant!”
Dr. Jiang Guanyu also appealed to the public that although Taiwan has not been greatly affected, it is still not recommended to “scan-buy” medicines such as Panacin and send them to China, because “it is not only the new coronavirus that is a disease.” Many respiratory diseases have also made a comeback this winter, and many long-term Investors may face the crisis of “not surviving the New Year”, so reserving their own resources is also crucial.
“The protective power of the bivalent vaccine is only 20-30%. Tracking by the US CDC from September to November shows that the best efficacy of the bivalent vaccine is only about 40%. However, if only the new coronavirus monovalent vaccine was administered before, the protective power Almost all of them have dropped below 20%, and taking more monovalent vaccines may not be very effective. Therefore, it is important to get the bivalent vaccine as soon as possible to catch up, and do your best to protect the vulnerable groups around you.”
Source:
“As China opens up to the epidemic, are we easily affected?” - Dr. Jiang Guanyu
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