18 million "excess deaths" from the epidemic worldwide? The average life expectancy in the United States drops by 1.8 years and breaks the 75-year record
“Excess deaths” far exceed estimates? Scholar: 18 million people died due to epidemic
The spread of the COVID-19 virus pandemic has caused immeasurable damage to population health and all aspects of the world. According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University, more than 460 million people have been infected and 6 million have died. However, scientists believe that the true death toll caused by COVID-19 may far exceed estimates. The Institute Health Metric and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington estimates the number of deaths directly and indirectly caused by COVID-19 based on the “excess model” Close to 18 million people.
Haidong Wang, a statistician at the University of Washington, said that the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 is far greater than the official statistics of most countries. In order to overcome the differences in forensic identification of causes of death in various countries, IHME uses a statistical model called “excess deaths”. According to 15 A variable factor was included in the statistics, including direct and indirect deaths, as well as cases that were not infected with the virus but died due to overload of medical resources. This study was published in the authoritative journal “The Lancet”.
WHO finds huge differences in death registration across countries: Latin America has the highest excess deaths
IHME counts death data from 74 countries and regions in total. Based on the excess death model, there were approximately 5.9 million COVID-19 deaths between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021. However, due to the pandemic The global number of excess deaths may total 18.2 million. The regions with the highest excess mortality rates in the world are Latin America (512 excess deaths per 100,000 people), Eastern Europe, Central Europe, southern Africa and other countries.
Prior to this, The Economist had published a similar study estimate, which believed that the true death toll from COVID-19 should be around 18 million. However, IHME’s error range is smaller. The Economist’s death toll range is 12.6 million to 21 million, while IHME’s error range is between 17.1 million and 19.6 million.
The World Health Organization (WHO) also agrees that “excess deaths” are indeed a major impact of COVID-19. Among the 133 countries in the world, many countries still lack effective health care statistical systems and are unable to provide accurate data and correctly register the proportion of deaths. Ranging from 10% to 98%, there is obviously a huge gap.
The epidemic has reduced the average life expectancy in the United States by 1.8 years, the largest decline in 75 years
In addition to causing a death toll that far exceeds estimates, the virus has also had a drastic impact on the current average life span of humans. A data briefing released by the U.S. CDC in January 2022 pointed out that due to the impact of COVID-19, the average life expectancy of the U.S. population in 2020 was 77.0 years, a decrease of 1.8 years from 2019, which was the largest decline in 75 years.
The U.S. CDC pointed out that before the vaccine was widely implemented, the average life expectancy of American men dropped by 2.1 years in 2020, from 76.3 years to 74.2 years. The average life expectancy of women dropped by 1.5 years, from 81.4 years in 2019 to 79.9 years. The CDC report pointed out that the main reasons for the decline in life expectancy include increased mortality caused by COVID-19 infection, accidents, heart disease, and diabetes. The standard death rate per 100,000 people increased sharply by 17%.
The US CDC briefing points out that in terms of “cause of death” alone, the main causes of death in 2020 are cardiovascular disease and cancer, and COVID-19 infection deaths have jumped to the third leading cause of death. Deaths by suicide fell out of the top ten. The CDC also reminded that the health threats of the epidemic include indirectly causing an increase in other causes of death, such as heart disease, dementia, diabetes, etc., and also hindering the preventive health care system and early detection of diseases.
source:
The true death toll of COVID-19
COVID-19 Deaths Helped Drive Largest Drop in US Life Expectancy in More than 75 Years
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